Multifamily - Interactive Market Prediction Tool
Austin built more apartments in 2023 and 2024 than in any two years in its history, increasing market-wide vacancy from 6 to 16 percent. Use this tool to predict Austin's path back to equilibrium, using the variables below* fitted on 25 years of Austin's CoStar data and checked against the 37 largest U.S. metros. Use the toggles and movable line graphs below to the left to experiment with different scenarios.
Boston is one of the tightest apartment markets in the country: year-end vacancy has averaged 5.1% over 25 years against 6.9% for all 394 U.S. metros, and has never ended a year above 8%. Deliveries of 7,000 to 12,000 units a year since 2019, against absorption near 6,500 outside the 2021 rebound, lifted vacancy from 4.4% at the end of 2021 to 6.5% at the end of 2025, its highest year end apart from 2020; the first half of 2026 has pulled it back to 5.7%. Use this tool to test where Boston goes from here.
New York is the tightest large apartment market in the country: year-end vacancy has averaged 3.2% over 25 years against 6.9% for all 394 U.S. metros, and has never ended a year above 3.8%, even in 2020. Deliveries have stepped up to 23,000 to 32,000 units a year since 2022 on a stock of 1.5 million and have been absorbed about as fast as they arrive; vacancy has held at 2.9% at each year end since 2023, with 46,000 units under construction. Use this tool to test whether the pipeline changes that.
San Francisco had the deepest pandemic hole of any major market: vacancy went from 5.7% at the end of 2019 to 10.5% at the end of 2020 as 5,900 occupied units emptied, and rents fell 11%. It has taken five years to work back: 4.4% at the end of 2025 and 3.7% at Q2 2026, below the market's 25-year average of 5.4% and well under the 6.9% average for all 394 U.S. metros, with rents up 7.9% in 2025. Supply is thin, 1,000 to 3,000 units a year on a stock of 192,000, and 3,900 units are under construction. Use this tool to test whether the recovery holds.
Los Angeles is a large, slow, tight market: year-end vacancy has stayed between 4.0% and 6.0% for 25 years, averaging 4.7% against 6.9% for all 394 U.S. metros, and deliveries run near 10,000 units a year on a stock of 1.06 million, under 1% of stock. Vacancy has drifted up from 4.1% at the end of 2021 to 5.6% at the end of 2025, its highest year end since 2020, with absorption below deliveries in each of the last four years. Use this tool to test where it goes from here.
Columbus has been a steady, affordable market for most of 25 years, with year-end vacancy averaging 7.2% against 6.9% for all 394 U.S. metros, but its own supply wave has now arrived: deliveries ran 7,000 to 9,300 units a year over 2023 to 2025 on a stock of 229,000, and vacancy climbed from 5.5% at the end of 2021 to 10.2% at the end of 2025, a 25-year high, with 9,700 units still under construction. Rents slipped 0.9% in 2025 after two decades of growth near 2% a year. Use this tool to test how long the wave takes to clear.
Miami is a tight market that has loosened: year-end vacancy averaged 5.5% over 25 years against 6.9% for all 394 U.S. metros, fell to 3.6% at the end of 2021 on the pandemic migration wave, and has since climbed to 7.7% at the end of 2025, its highest year end on record, as deliveries of 6,500 to 10,000 units a year outran absorption. Rents rose 15% in 2021 and 6.7% in 2022 and have been flat to slightly down since; 16,000 units are under construction on a stock of 207,000. Use this tool to test where the market settles.
Tampa rode the pandemic migration wave hardest of the Florida markets, with rents up 20% in 2021 and vacancy down to 4.7%, and has given much of it back: deliveries of 8,000 to 12,600 units a year over 2022 to 2025 on a stock of 244,000 took year-end vacancy to 10.6% at the end of 2025, a 25-year high against a 7.8% average (all 394 U.S. metros: 6.9%), and rents fell 5.1% in 2025. Another 13,000 units are under construction. Use this tool to test how far the correction runs.
Nashville has been the fastest-building market in this group after Austin, starting about 4% of its stock a year since 2001 against 2% for all 394 U.S. metros, and the 2023 to 2024 wave of 12,000-plus deliveries a year on a stock of 187,000 took year-end vacancy from 5.9% at the end of 2021 to 12.1% at the end of 2024. Absorption has been strong (8,900 to 9,900 units a year in 2024 and 2025), vacancy eased to 11.3% at the end of 2025 and 10.1% at Q2 2026, and rents have fallen three years running. Use this tool to test when Nashville gets back to its 8.5% target.
Charlotte builds at Austin's pace, about 4.5% of its stock a year since 2001 against 2% for all 394 U.S. metros, and the 2024 to 2025 deliveries of 15,000 to 17,000 units a year on a stock of 246,000 took year-end vacancy to 12.6% at the end of 2024, its highest in 25 years, before record absorption of 14,500 units in 2025 pulled it back to 12.0%. Rents have fallen three years running and have compounded at only 0.8% a year since 2001. With 16,800 units under construction, use this tool to test how long the wave takes to clear.
Washington's apartment vacancy stood at 8.0% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.6% and above its 25-year average of 6.7%, after falling 0.5 points from 8.5% at the end of 2025. 14,459 units are under construction, 2.4% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 13,766 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.1 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 4,720 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Washington is not projected to reach its 6.5% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 11.9% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Washington goes from here.
Philadelphia's apartment vacancy stood at 6.8% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.1% and above its 25-year average of 6.4%, after falling 0.4 points from 7.2% at the end of 2025. 7,466 units are under construction, 1.9% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 9,603 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.8 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 3,756 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Philadelphia is not projected to reach its 6.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 7.1% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Philadelphia goes from here.
Baltimore's apartment vacancy stood at 7.4% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.8% and above its 25-year average of 6.3%, after falling 0.2 points from 7.5% at the end of 2025. 3,437 units are under construction, 1.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,483 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 872 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Baltimore is not projected to reach its 7.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 7.1% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Baltimore goes from here.
Northern New Jersey's apartment vacancy stood at 5.5% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 4.4% and above its 25-year average of 5.1%, after falling 0.4 points from 5.9% at the end of 2025. 5,837 units are under construction, 3.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 4,696 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.2 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,372 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Northern New Jersey is projected to reach its 4.5% target in 2029. Use this tool to test where Northern New Jersey goes from here.
Atlanta's apartment vacancy stood at 11.0% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 9.0% and above its 25-year average of 9.4%, after falling 0.7 points from 11.7% at the end of 2025. 13,987 units are under construction, 2.5% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 17,432 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.8 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 10,176 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Atlanta is not projected to reach its 9.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 10.3% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Atlanta goes from here.
Orlando's apartment vacancy stood at 9.8% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 7.2% and above its 25-year average of 8.2%, after falling 0.9 points from 10.7% at the end of 2025. 8,590 units are under construction, 3.5% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 11,190 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.8 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 6,466 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Orlando is not projected to reach its 7.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 8.5% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Orlando goes from here.
Fort Lauderdale's apartment vacancy stood at 7.4% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.8% and above its 25-year average of 6.5%, after falling 0.1 points from 7.5% at the end of 2025. 5,980 units are under construction, 4.0% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 3,980 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.5 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,685 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Fort Lauderdale is projected to reach its 7.0% target in 2028. Use this tool to test where Fort Lauderdale goes from here.
Chicago's apartment vacancy stood at 5.2% at Q2 2026, below its 2016 to 2019 average of 7.0% and below its 25-year average of 7.0%, after rising 0.2 points from 5.0% at the end of 2025. 9,323 units are under construction, 1.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 8,082 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.2 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,055 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy rose. At the default settings Chicago is already at or below its 7.0% target, and vacancy is projected near 5.5% in 2036. Use this tool to test where Chicago goes from here.
Minneapolis's apartment vacancy stood at 6.1% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 4.9% and close to its 25-year average of 6.0%, after falling 0.2 points from 6.3% at the end of 2025. 6,117 units are under construction, 2.1% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 9,484 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.6 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,946 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Minneapolis is not projected to reach its 5.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 5.7% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Minneapolis goes from here.
Detroit's apartment vacancy stood at 7.3% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.0% and above its 25-year average of 6.8%, after falling 0.4 points from 7.7% at the end of 2025. 4,229 units are under construction, 1.8% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,573 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.6 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,633 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Detroit is not projected to reach its 6.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 6.4% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Detroit goes from here.
Kansas City's apartment vacancy stood at 8.5% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 8.2% and below its 25-year average of 8.8%, after falling 0.3 points from 8.8% at the end of 2025. 6,130 units are under construction, 3.3% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 4,528 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,872 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Kansas City is projected to reach its 8.0% target in 2035. Use this tool to test where Kansas City goes from here.
Indianapolis's apartment vacancy stood at 10.6% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 8.8% and above its 25-year average of 9.8%, after falling 0.7 points from 11.4% at the end of 2025. 4,399 units are under construction, 2.5% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 4,423 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about one year of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,609 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Indianapolis is not projected to reach its 9.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 9.4% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Indianapolis goes from here.
Saint Louis's apartment vacancy stood at 9.9% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 9.7% and close to its 25-year average of 9.9%, after falling 0.6 points from 10.5% at the end of 2025. 3,217 units are under construction, 2.1% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 3,131 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about one year of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,455 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Saint Louis is projected to reach its 9.5% target in 2033. Use this tool to test where Saint Louis goes from here.
Cincinnati's apartment vacancy stood at 9.0% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.6% and above its 25-year average of 7.4%, after rising 0.9 points from 8.1% at the end of 2025. 3,971 units are under construction, 2.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,918 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,068 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy rose. At the default settings Cincinnati is not projected to reach its 6.5% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 6.8% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Cincinnati goes from here.
Dallas-Fort Worth's apartment vacancy stood at 11.7% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 8.5% and above its 25-year average of 9.1%, after falling 0.4 points from 12.1% at the end of 2025. 31,498 units are under construction, 3.4% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 31,378 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about one year of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 17,252 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Dallas-Fort Worth is not projected to reach its 8.5% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 9.2% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Dallas-Fort Worth goes from here.
Houston's apartment vacancy stood at 12.3% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 10.3% and above its 25-year average of 9.9%, after falling 0.2 points from 12.5% at the end of 2025. 12,331 units are under construction, 1.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 19,856 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.6 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 9,156 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Houston is projected to reach its 10.5% target in 2029. Use this tool to test where Houston goes from here.
Phoenix's apartment vacancy stood at 11.4% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 7.0% and above its 25-year average of 9.2%, after falling 1.2 points from 12.6% at the end of 2025. 17,362 units are under construction, 4.0% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 18,624 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.9 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 13,096 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Phoenix is not projected to reach its 7.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 9.3% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Phoenix goes from here.
Denver's apartment vacancy stood at 10.5% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 7.7% and above its 25-year average of 7.9%, after falling 1.7 points from 12.2% at the end of 2025. 13,104 units are under construction, 4.0% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 11,906 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.1 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 8,942 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Denver is not projected to reach its 7.5% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 8.4% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Denver goes from here.
San Antonio's apartment vacancy stood at 15.3% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 10.1% and above its 25-year average of 9.8%, after falling 0.2 points from 15.6% at the end of 2025. 3,378 units are under construction, 1.4% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 7,518 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 3,226 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings San Antonio is not projected to reach its 10.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 10.1% by 2036. Use this tool to test where San Antonio goes from here.
Las Vegas's apartment vacancy stood at 10.7% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 7.0% and above its 25-year average of 8.3%, after rising 0.1 points from 10.6% at the end of 2025. 4,576 units are under construction, 2.3% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 4,060 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.1 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,659 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy rose. At the default settings Las Vegas is not projected to reach its 7.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 9.9% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Las Vegas goes from here.
Seattle's apartment vacancy stood at 7.0% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.2% and above its 25-year average of 6.5%, after falling 0.4 points from 7.3% at the end of 2025. 14,823 units are under construction, 3.6% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 11,068 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.3 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 4,224 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Seattle is not projected to reach its 6.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 6.5% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Seattle goes from here.
San Diego's apartment vacancy stood at 6.3% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 4.9% and above its 25-year average of 4.7%, after rising 0.4 points from 5.9% at the end of 2025. 7,918 units are under construction, 2.7% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 4,798 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.7 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,724 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy rose. At the default settings San Diego is not projected to reach its 5.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 7.0% by 2036. Use this tool to test where San Diego goes from here.
Orange County's apartment vacancy stood at 4.4% at Q2 2026, below its 2016 to 2019 average of 4.7% and close to its 25-year average of 4.5%, after rising 0.4 points from 4.0% at the end of 2025. 3,310 units are under construction, 1.3% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,352 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,053 units ran behind the projected pace and vacancy rose. At the default settings Orange County is already at or below its 4.5% target, and vacancy is projected near 5.8% in 2036. Use this tool to test where Orange County goes from here.
Portland's apartment vacancy stood at 7.0% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 6.3% and above its 25-year average of 5.9%, after falling 0.4 points from 7.4% at the end of 2025. 2,552 units are under construction, 1.1% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 6,122 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.4 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,100 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Portland is not projected to reach its 6.5% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 7.0% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Portland goes from here.
East Bay's apartment vacancy stood at 5.3% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 5.0% and close to its 25-year average of 5.1%, after falling 0.6 points from 6.0% at the end of 2025. 2,346 units are under construction, 1.2% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,812 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 0.8 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,224 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings East Bay is not projected to reach its 5.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 6.5% by 2036. Use this tool to test where East Bay goes from here.
Inland Empire's apartment vacancy stood at 6.5% at Q2 2026, above its 2016 to 2019 average of 4.8% and above its 25-year average of 5.8%, after falling 0.5 points from 7.0% at the end of 2025. 3,659 units are under construction, 2.0% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,986 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.2 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 2,174 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings Inland Empire is not projected to reach its 5.0% target within the ten-year horizon; vacancy settles near 7.6% by 2036. Use this tool to test where Inland Empire goes from here.
San Jose's apartment vacancy stood at 3.5% at Q2 2026, below its 2016 to 2019 average of 5.8% and below its 25-year average of 5.3%, after falling 0.9 points from 4.5% at the end of 2025. 4,680 units are under construction, 2.9% of the stock, against deliveries that averaged 2,499 units a year over 2021 to 2025 (about 1.9 years of deliveries at that pace). In the first half of 2026 net absorption of 1,542 units ran ahead of the projected pace and vacancy fell. At the default settings San Jose is already at or below its 6.0% target, and vacancy is projected near 5.2% in 2036. Use this tool to test where San Jose goes from here.
Vacancy rate and effective rent, history and projection
Annual, year end, MSA. Vacancy in navy on the left axis; effective rent per square foot in red on the right axis. Solid = CoStar history, dashed = projection under your assumptions; the green line is your target and the gray line the frictional floor.
Vacant units vs. target (lines) and net annual change (bars)
Units, thousands. Lighter bars and the dashed line are projected.
Year by year
Projection rows in italics. Actual first-half 2026: .
Sources
- CoStar Group, multifamily DataExport for 394 U.S. metros, Q1 2000 to Q2 2026, As Of 2026 Q2, annualized: inventory, vacancy, effective rent, deliveries, net absorption and starts, one MSA per market in the dropdown. costar.com
- Federal Reserve Board H.15 via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), GS5 (5-year Treasury constant maturity yield), annual averages 2000 to 2025 and January to August 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS5
- 5-year Treasury forward curve, monthly resets September 2026 to September 2036, as of September 14, 2026, averaged by calendar year for the default rate path.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), T5YIE (5-year breakeven inflation rate) and T5YIFR (5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate), September 11, 2026, for the default inflation path. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), CPIAUCSL, December values, for the inflation-adjusted rent fit. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
- Companion workbook: mf-stabilization-tool-workbook-annual-2026-09-13.xlsx (history, fitted coefficients and the annual projection engine for each market; the Coefficients tabs recompute every formula from the data).