U.S. Retail Supply Cycle: 2008–2026

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Companion Excel Workbook: National Retail Supply Cycle

U.S. retail net deliveries totaled 216 million SF in 2008, ran between 50 and 80 million SF per year from 2010 through 2019, and averaged 26 million SF per year from 2020 through 2025: 28 million SF in 2025 and 13.5 million SF in the first half of 2026.[1]

National retail vacancy peaked at 7.1% at the end of 2009, fell to 4.0% at the end of 2023, the low of the series, and stood at 4.3% at the end of 2025 and 4.4% at Q2 2026. Availability fell from 8.8% in 2010 to 4.8%.[1]

Market asking rent rose from $19.09/SF in 2008 to $26.00/SF in 2025 and $26.22/SF at Q2 2026, up 37%. Annual rent growth ran 3.5% to 4.1% in 2021–2023, 2.8% in 2025, and 2.2% at Q2 2026.[1]

Construction starts averaged 91 million SF per year from 2008 through 2019 and 57 million SF per year from 2020 through 2025, with 22 million SF in the first half of 2026. Space under construction was 58 million SF (0.5% of inventory) at Q2 2026.[1]

U.S. Retail Net Delivered SF (2008–2026)

U.S. Retail Net Delivered SF 2008 to 2026, 2026 annualized

Source: CoStar, Q2 2026; 2026 annualized from first-half figures.

U.S. Retail Deliveries, Absorption & Vacancy (2008–2026)

U.S. Retail Deliveries, Absorption and Vacancy 2008 to 2026, 2026 annualized

Source: CoStar, Q2 2026; 2026 deliveries and absorption annualized from first-half figures, vacancy as of Q2 2026.

U.S. Retail Vacancy vs. Market Asking Rent (2008–2026)

U.S. Retail Vacancy vs Market Asking Rent 2008 to 2026

Source: CoStar, Q2 2026; the 2026 point is the Q2 2026 reading.

U.S. Retail Net Deliveries vs. Construction Starts (Prior 2-Year Average)

U.S. Retail Net Deliveries vs Prior 2-Year Average Starts, 2010 to 2026

Source: CoStar, Q2 2026; 2026 annualized from first-half figures. Correlation between annual net deliveries and prior 2-year average starts (2010–2025) ≈ 0.80.

Key Observations

Net deliveries have stayed below 40 million SF in every year since 2020. Annual net deliveries were 37 million SF in 2020, 15 million in 2021 and 2022, 35 million in 2023, 27 million in 2024, and 28 million in 2025. The 2008 total of 216 million SF is the high of the series; net deliveries subtract demolished and converted space from completions.[1]

Net absorption was positive in every year from 2008 through 2019. Cumulative net absorption over those twelve years was 1.05 billion SF. Absorption was negative 30 million SF in 2020, positive in each year from 2021 through 2024 (200 million SF combined), negative 0.8 million SF in 2025, and positive 6.1 million SF in the first half of 2026.[1]

Year-end vacancy has been between 4.0% and 5.0% in every year since 2016. Vacancy fell from 7.1% at the end of 2009 to 4.5% at the end of 2016, reached 5.0% at the end of 2020, and fell to 4.0% at the end of 2023. It was 4.3% at the end of 2025 and 4.4% at Q2 2026.[1]

Asking rent has risen in every year since 2012. Rent declined in 2008 through 2011, from $19.23/SF at the end of 2007 to $17.75/SF at the end of 2011, and has risen each year since, to $26.22/SF at Q2 2026. Annual growth peaked at 4.1% in 2022 and was 2.2% at Q2 2026.[1]

Construction starts have exceeded net deliveries in every year since 2010. Starts averaged 91 million SF per year from 2008 through 2019 against net deliveries of 80 million SF, and 57 million SF against 26 million SF from 2020 through 2025. The gap is demolished and converted space, which CoStar nets out of deliveries; the correlation between annual net deliveries and the prior two-year average of starts is 0.80 for 2010–2025, against 0.95 to 0.99 for the office, industrial, and multifamily series.[1]

The construction pipeline has been between 0.4% and 0.9% of inventory since 2008. Space under construction was 177 million SF (1.7% of inventory) at the end of 2007, 95 million SF (0.9%) at the end of 2008, and between 47 and 87 million SF in every year since. It was 58 million SF (0.5%) at Q2 2026. The CoStar market cap rate for retail was 8.7% at the end of 2009, 6.9% at the end of 2021, and 7.4% at Q2 2026.[1]

What to Watch For in 2026 and Beyond

Sources to Track U.S. Retail Supply in 2026:

Source	Report / Series	Frequency	Notes
CoStar	Quarterly national and MSA-level retail update	Quarterly	Inventory, deliveries, starts, absorption, vacancy, availability, and rents; the basis of every series on this page
U.S. Census Bureau	Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales	Quarterly, about seven weeks after quarter end	E-commerce share of total retail sales, 17.1% in Q2 2026
U.S. Census Bureau	Monthly Retail Trade Survey	Monthly	Retail sales by kind of business; the demand-side backdrop to retail space
Coresight Research	Store Tracker	Weekly, with annual reviews	U.S. store openings and closures by retailer

Notes

[1] CoStar. U.S. Retail National Historical Data (Q2 2026, exported August 26, 2026). costar.com. Quarterly data for inventory, net delivered SF, construction starts, net absorption, vacancy rate, availability rate, asking rent/SF, rent growth, under-construction SF, and market cap rate for the U.S. retail market (all retail), Q4 2007 through Q2 2026, rolled up to calendar years by CRE42. Figures for 2026 are the first half (Q1–Q2) unless marked annualized. ↩

Companion workbook. retail-national-supply-cycle.xlsx: quarterly CoStar data (Q4 2007–Q2 2026), the calendar-year roll-up with the 2026 first-half and annualized rows, the deliveries-vs-starts correlation, and native charts. CoStar, Q2 2026.

Methodology & Data Notes

Data Source & Period

All national retail data sourced from CoStar’s U.S. Retail National Historical dataset, exported August 26, 2026, with the series cut at Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026); CoStar’s partial-quarter and forecast rows are not used. CoStar reports quarterly; CRE42 rolls the quarters up to calendar years, taking year-end readings for inventory, vacancy, availability, rent, cap rate, and under-construction figures and four-quarter sums for deliveries, starts, and absorption. The 2026 first-half figures quoted in the text are the first two quarters of 2026; the charts plot 2026 as an annualized point (first-half deliveries, starts, and absorption doubled, with vacancy, availability, rent, and pipeline as of Q2 2026), and the workbook carries both rows. CoStar’s retail series begins in Q4 2007, so 2007 holds one quarter of flows and the charts start at 2008. “Net Delivered SF” subtracts demolished and converted square footage from gross deliveries. “Construction Starts” represents the square footage of retail projects that broke ground in each calendar year. “Net Absorption” represents the change in occupied square footage over the period.

Starts-to-Deliveries Correlation

The correlation of approximately 0.80 is calculated between annual net delivered SF and the simple average of construction starts from the two preceding calendar years (e.g., 2025 deliveries correlated with the average of 2023 and 2024 starts), for the full calendar years 2010 through 2025. Data begins in 2010 (earliest year with two prior full years of starts data); the 2026 bar (annualized from the first half) is shown for continuity but excluded from the correlation. Because net deliveries subtract demolitions and conversions, which are large relative to completions in retail, the correlation is lower than the 0.95 to 0.99 measured for office, industrial, and multifamily.

Vacancy Rate vs. Availability Rate

Vacancy rate represents the percentage of total inventory that is physically vacant at period end. Availability rate is a broader measure that includes vacant space plus occupied space listed for sublease or anticipated to become available at lease expiration. The gap between availability and vacancy was approximately 45 bps at Q2 2026 (4.8% availability against 4.4% vacancy), down from roughly 180 bps in 2010.

Retail Universe & Rent Data

CoStar’s all-retail universe includes general/freestanding, malls, power centers, neighborhood centers, strip centers, and all other retail formats; it totals approximately 11.7 billion SF as of Q2 2026 and is broader than brokerage shopping-center series, so vacancy and rent figures are not directly comparable across sources. Market asking rent represents the CoStar-weighted average asking rent per SF across the full retail inventory. Rent growth data begins in 2008.