Climate Change

Climate change has become a politically polarized subject in the United States, spawning a cottage industry of politically biased (in both directions) news and analysis around its likely pace and consequences. The dynamics of climate change are complicated by the impossibility of isolating and adjusting for specific data within the context of 2+ billion years of heating and cooling cycles and volatile global weather.

The existence of a global warming trend is no longer controversial in mainstream circles, but there is still considerable debate around the speed at which the climate is changing, our ability as humans to adjust to those changes, and the likelihood of solving or mitigating the effects of a warming earth through a combination of technology and conservation (a.k.a. changing human behavior, a notoriously difficult aspiration).

Inherently complicated science and widespread ideological and confirmation bias combine to make climate change challenging to integrate into a CRE investment strategy-oriented world view. This section will help the reader create a neutral fact-based framework to understand and incorporate existing and new information related to the earth’s climate in context.

Flooding from climate change Drought conditions
Climate Change: Data Summary & Overview
CO₂ and temperature trends; sea level rise; ice sheet and glacier data; two frameworks for interpreting the data — the case for urgency vs. the case for manageable risk
Climate Risk at the MSA Level: Insurance & High-Tide Flooding
Homeowners insurance premium trends by state (2007–2022); high-tide flooding annual data and city-level impacts in Charleston, Miami, Norfolk, NYC, Galveston, and Boston
Water, Drought & Development Feasibility
Western water supply constraints; drought conditions and municipal water restrictions; implications for Sun Belt and interior West development pipelines
Energy Demand, Cooling & Grid Strain
Rising cooling degree days and peak electricity demand; grid capacity vs. load growth; overlap with data center power demand and electrification trends

Key Data Sources & Research

NOAA / National Centers for Environmental Information
www.ncei.noaa.gov - Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters; historical storm and temperature data
FEMA
www.fema.gov - National Flood Insurance Program data, flood zone maps, disaster declarations
U.S. Energy Information Administration
www.eia.gov - Electricity demand, cooling degree days, grid capacity and generation data
Insurance Information Institute
www.iii.org - Property insurance market data, rate trends, carrier solvency
U.S. Drought Monitor
droughtmonitor.unl.edu - Weekly drought severity maps and historical drought data
First Street Foundation
firststreet.org - Property-level climate risk scoring for flood, fire, heat, and wind