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Climate Risk at the MSA Level

Overview

The fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States are disproportionately concentrated in regions facing the most acute climate-related pressures. Sun Belt and Mountain West metros—Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Miami, Tampa, Austin, Dallas, Charlotte, Jacksonville—have attracted millions of new residents and massive commercial and residential real estate investment over the past two decades. Many of these same metros are experiencing serious climate related disruptions, including flood frequency, and wildfire exposure, and long-term water supply constraints, resulting in higher utility, capex, and insurance costs.

Three of the first measurable climate change trends are explored in the charts and text below:

  1. Property insurance premiums (2007–2024)
  2. High-tide (nuisance) flooding frequency (2014–2024)
  3. Lake Mead elevation (2000–2025; representative of the depletion of the Colorado River system—the primary water supply for approximately 40 million people in one of the country’s fastest-growing regions)

Document Links

climate-change-all-data.xlsx — Insurance premiums by state, high-tide flooding frequency, Lake Mead elevation, CO₂ and temperature data, sea level rise, ice sheet mass

Homeowners Insurance Premiums by State (2007–2024)

Line chart showing homeowners insurance premium index from 2007 to 2024 with 2007 equals 100 for Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, California, Ohio, and the U.S. average. Colorado reaches 322 by 2024, Louisiana 299, and the U.S. average 236. All states accelerate sharply after 2020. Years 2023 and 2024 are shaded to indicate estimated values.

Figure 1. Homeowners insurance premium index by state (2007 = 100). Data through 2022 reflects actual NAIC HO-3 average premiums; 2023–2024 are estimated using S&P Global RateWatch annual rate filing changes applied to the 2022 NAIC base (shaded area). States with high exposure to wildfire (Colorado), hurricanes (Louisiana, Florida), and severe convective storms (Oklahoma) show premiums diverging sharply from the national average, with the gap accelerating after approximately 2020. Sources: NAIC via Insurance Information Institute (2007–2022); S&P Global RateWatch via LendingTree (2023–2024).

Key Observations

Colorado premiums have more than tripled since 2007 (+222% by 2024), the largest increase of any state tracked, driven by wildfire losses and severe convective storms. The 2021 Marshall Fire alone caused over $2 billion in damage—the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history by structures lost.[1]
Louisiana premiums have nearly tripled (+199% by 2024), reflecting cumulative hurricane losses and reinsurance repricing across the Gulf Coast. Twelve carriers became insolvent following the 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons, reducing competition and concentrating risk.[1]
The national average has increased approximately 136% since 2007. Premium growth was modest through 2021 (roughly 3% per year), then accelerated to 5.4% (2022), 11.0% (2023), and 11.4% (2024) as catastrophe losses, reinsurance repricing, and elevated rebuilding costs compounded.[1][2]
2025 showed signs of moderation. Matic reported an 8.5% average increase for new policies as of December 2025, down from 18% the prior year. AM Best revised its homeowners insurance outlook from “Negative” to “Stable” after carriers returned to profitability. A quiet 2025 hurricane season—the first in a decade without a major U.S. landfall—and declining reinsurance costs eased pressure. Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation received 73 rate-decrease filings by late November 2025. However, premiums remain far above pre-2022 levels nationally.[2]
Important caveat: Premium changes reflect multiple factors including rebuilding/material costs, litigation environment, regulatory changes, reinsurance repricing, and insurer profitability—not solely climate or weather risk. Florida’s market crisis involved carrier insolvencies and the Citizens Property Insurance depopulation effort alongside pure weather exposure. However, catastrophe losses and reinsurance repricing (driven by global loss experience) are primary drivers in exposed states.

High-Tide Flooding: Observed Annual Trend (2014–2024)

Combined bar and line chart showing U.S. high-tide flooding days by region from 2014 through 2024. Gray bars show the regional total rising from about 18 days in 2014-15 to 60 in 2023-24. Lines for Mid-Atlantic, Western Gulf, Southeast, and the national average all trend upward, with a sharp spike in the El Nino year 2023-24.

Figure 2. Observed annual high-tide flood days by U.S. region. High-tide flooding (also called “nuisance” or “sunny day” flooding) occurs when tides reach 1–2 feet above the daily average high tide, causing road closures and property damage even without storms. Year-to-year variability is driven by ENSO cycles, storm activity, and lunar cycles; the underlying upward trend is driven by cumulative sea level rise. Source: NOAA CO-OPS Annual High Tide Flooding Outlooks (2015–2025).

Key Observations

National average flood days have roughly tripled since 2000, from approximately 2–3 days per year to 8 days by the mid-2020s. The underlying upward trend is driven by cumulative sea level rise, though individual years fluctuate with ENSO cycles and lunar patterns.[3]
The Western Gulf shows the most persistent trend, rising from approximately 4 flood days in 2014–15 to 17 in 2024–25, driven by sea level rise compounded by land subsidence. This region has experienced a ~300% increase vs. 2000.[3]
The Southeast has seen the fastest percentage increase—approximately 500% more flood days per year than in 2000. Charleston, SC illustrates the trend: from approximately 2 flood days per year in 2000 to regularly exceeding 15 days per year by the mid-2020s.[3]

Context & Discussion

Charleston, SC

Charleston is among the most visible examples of accelerating high-tide flooding in the United States. According to an NCCOS-sponsored study, the Charleston peninsula experienced flood events roughly 2 days per year in 1950; by 2014, this had increased to 25 days per year (42 total hours of flooding). In 2015, the city recorded 38 flood days—more than three times the number observed in 2000.[4] A 2019 city vulnerability study found that 70% of all residential properties in Charleston are highly vulnerable to flooding and 80% of the city’s annual sales volume and jobs are highly vulnerable.[5] Half of Charleston’s total sea level rise in the past 100 years occurred in the last 20 years.[5] The city has hired its first Chief Resiliency Officer, installed 22 check valves and backflow preventers to replace failing gravity-based drainage, and updated its flooding strategy to plan for 2–3 feet of elevation increase for new infrastructure.[5]

Miami & Southeast Florida

The vast majority of the Miami metropolitan area sits below 10 feet of elevation. Even a 1-foot increase over the average high tide causes widespread flooding across the metro area.[6] Miami Beach has replaced its gravity-based drainage system with pump systems because the old systems cannot function during high tides—seawater backs up through storm drains before surface flooding is even visible.[6] The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact tracks increasing hours above mean high tide across Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties, and King Tide events (fall perigean spring tides) now routinely flood roads and properties along the Intracoastal Waterway.[7]

Norfolk / Hampton Roads, VA

Norfolk combines sea level rise with significant land subsidence, making it one of the fastest-sinking populated areas on the East Coast. Sewells Point (home to Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base) now regularly records 20+ high-tide flood days per year. The Mid-Atlantic region overall has seen a ~250% increase in flood days vs. 2000.[3]

New York & Atlantic City

Atlantic City, NJ and the New York metropolitan area have seen sharp increases in high-tide flood frequency over the past decade. The Battery (Manhattan), Atlantic City, and Kings Point (Long Island Sound) all regularly exceed 20 flood days per year in the mid-2020s—levels that would have been exceptional a decade earlier.[3]

Galveston & the Western Gulf

The Western Gulf coast regularly records 20+ high-tide flood days per year at stations including Galveston and Eagle Point, TX. The region’s ~300% increase vs. 2000 is driven by the combination of sea level rise and land subsidence, which is particularly acute along the western reaches of the Gulf Coast.[3]

Lake Mead: Water Supply Under Pressure (2000–2025)

Line chart showing Lake Mead elevation at Hoover Dam declining from 1,196 feet in 2000 to approximately 1,062 feet in 2025, with a record low of 1,041 feet in July 2022. A dotted orange line marks the Tier 1 shortage trigger at 1,075 feet.

Figure 3. Lake Mead elevation at Hoover Dam, 2000–2025 (December year-end and annual low). The reservoir declined from 92% of capacity in 2000 to a record low of 1,041 feet (46% of capacity) in July 2022—its lowest level since initial filling in 1937. Conservation agreements and a wet 2023 winter produced a partial recovery, but the reservoir remained at approximately 51% of capacity as of early 2026. The orange line marks the 1,075-foot Tier 1 Shortage trigger, below which mandatory delivery cuts apply to Arizona and Nevada. Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.[8]

Key Observations

Lake Mead has lost roughly 130 feet of elevation since 2000, declining from 1,196 feet (92% of capacity) to approximately 1,062 feet (51%) as of year-end 2025. The reservoir serves approximately 25 million people across Nevada, Arizona, Southern California, and northern Mexico, and generates hydroelectric power at Hoover Dam.[8]
The underlying cause is a structural supply-demand imbalance. Natural flow in the Colorado River has averaged 12.4 million acre-feet (MAF) per year since 2000—15% below the long-term average of 14.6 MAF (1906–2024). Meanwhile, consumptive use averaged 19.3 MAF per year from 2000 to 2019, producing an annual deficit of roughly 6.6 MAF that has steadily drained reservoir storage.[9]
The 1922 Colorado River Compact allocated more water than the river produces. Compact-era flow estimates assumed 16.4 MAF per year based on an unusually wet period (1906–1921). The seven basin states and Mexico have legal entitlements exceeding average natural flow—a problem that persisted for decades only because reservoir storage masked the deficit.[9]
The Bureau of Reclamation declared the first-ever Tier 1 shortage in August 2021, triggering mandatory delivery cuts for Arizona and Nevada. Subsequent years saw Tier 2 (2023) and Tier 1 (2024) cuts. Conservation agreements totaling 3.0 MAF through 2026—partially funded by $4 billion in federal funds under the Inflation Reduction Act—have slowed the decline but not reversed it.[10]
New operating rules must be negotiated before the end of 2026. The 2007 Interim Guidelines and 2019 Drought Contingency Plans both expire. In January 2026, the Bureau of Reclamation released a draft environmental impact statement with five alternatives, most of which impose deeper delivery reductions than recent levels. Upper and Lower Basin states have submitted competing proposals, and the final framework will directly affect water availability for communities and industries across the region.[10]

Context & Discussion (continued)

The Colorado River Basin & Dependent Populations

The Colorado River system supplies water to approximately 40 million people across seven states and Mexico, irrigates roughly 5.5 million acres of farmland, and generates hydroelectric power at multiple dams. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are the system’s two largest reservoirs, with a combined capacity of approximately 50 million acre-feet. The system went from 95% full in 2000 to near-record lows by 2022. As of early 2026, combined storage remains at historically low levels. The 25-year period from 2000 to 2024 was the driest in over 1,200 years of record-keeping, based on paleoclimate reconstructions.[9] Western snowpack—a critical source of reservoir inflows—has grown increasingly volatile. Sierra Nevada snowpack, which supplies roughly 30% of California’s water, reached its lowest level in 500 years in April 2015, then swung to 237% of average in 2023 before falling back to 96% in 2025. Colorado River Basin snowpack was at just 23% of the seasonal median as of early 2025, signaling potential further stress on downstream reservoirs.[11]

Southern Nevada (Las Vegas) has adapted more aggressively than most Colorado River users. The Southern Nevada Water Authority implemented tiered water pricing, removed over 200 million square feet of ornamental grass, and recycled nearly all indoor water back to Lake Mead. Per-capita water consumption in Las Vegas declined roughly 47% from 2002 to 2022 even as the metro population grew significantly. Despite these efforts, Nevada’s Colorado River allocation (300,000 acre-feet per year) is the smallest of the three Lower Basin states and is subject to shortage-tier cuts.[9]

Arizona faces the most direct impact from Colorado River reductions. The Central Arizona Project (CAP) aqueduct delivers approximately 1.5 million acre-feet per year from Lake Mead to Phoenix, Tucson, and agricultural users in Central Arizona. Under shortage conditions, Arizona absorbs the largest mandatory delivery reductions among Lower Basin states. In parallel, the Arizona Department of Water Resources determined in June 2023 that all physically available groundwater in the Phoenix Active Management Area is fully allocated, meaning new suburban subdivisions outside of designated municipal service areas can no longer rely on local groundwater to meet the state’s 100-year Assured Water Supply requirement.[10]

Next: Phoenix — Water, Growth & Industrial Demand

The Phoenix metropolitan area sits at the intersection of multiple water supply constraints: declining Colorado River allocations, fully allocated groundwater, and a 100-year assured water supply framework that is actively being renegotiated. At the same time, Phoenix is attracting significant water-intensive industrial investment—semiconductor fabrication facilities (TSMC, Intel), hyperscale data centers, and advanced manufacturing—all of which require reliable water and electricity in a region where both are under increasing pressure. The next page in this section examines Phoenix as a case study in the tension between Sun Belt growth and long-term resource sustainability.

What to Watch in 2026

Sources to Track Climate Risk at the MSA Level:

Source Next Release Date Notes
NAIC / Insurance Information Institute State-level HO-3 avg premiums for 2023 Expected mid-2026 Will fill the 2023 gap between NAIC actuals and S&P rate-filing estimates
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lake Mead monthly elevation update Monthly (ongoing) Track whether spring 2026 snowmelt stabilizes or further depletes reservoir storage
Bureau of Reclamation Post-2026 Colorado River Operating Rules (Final EIS) Expected late 2026 Will determine shortage-tier delivery cuts for AZ, NV, and CA through the next operating period
NOAA CO-OPS 2026–27 High Tide Flooding Outlook Expected June 2026 Will show whether post-El Niño flood frequency remains elevated or reverts toward baseline
California DWR / USDA NRCS April 1 Sierra Nevada snow survey April 2026 Peak snowpack measurement; key indicator for CA water supply and reservoir inflows

Notes

[1] National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Dwelling Fire, Homeowners Owner-Occupied Reports (2007–2022), compiled via Insurance Information Institute. iii.org ↩

[2] S&P Global Market Intelligence, RateWatch. Annual homeowners rate filing data (2019–2024), as analyzed by LendingTree, “State of Home Insurance: 2025” (June 2025). 2025 outlook: Matic, 2026 Home Insurance Predictions (Dec 2025); AM Best; Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. ↩

[3] NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. Annual High Tide Flooding Outlooks (2015–2025). tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov ↩

[4] Morris, J.T. and K.A. Renken, 2020. “Past, Present, and Future Nuisance Flooding on the Charleston Peninsula.” PLoS ONE 15(9): e0238770. NCCOS Effects of Sea Level Rise Program. ↩

[5] City of Charleston. FloodStat. charleston-sc.gov/floodstat ↩

[6] Wikipedia. Tidal Flooding (Miami Beach section); NOAA. ↩

[7] Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact. Climate Indicators — High Tide Flooding. southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org ↩

[8] U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Historical Reservoir Levels: Lake Mead at Hoover Dam (updated monthly, data through Feb 2026). usbr.gov ↩

[9] Congressional Research Service. Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role (R45546, updated 2025). congress.gov ↩

[10] Congressional Research Service. Responding to Drought in the Colorado River Basin (IN11982, updated 2026); Arizona Dept. of Water Resources, Phoenix AMA Groundwater Model (June 2023). congress.gov ↩

[11] Belmecheri, S. et al. (2015). “Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack.” Nature Climate Change 5, 929–932. California Dept. of Water Resources snow surveys (April 1 SWE, 1900s–present). USDA NRCS, Lower Colorado River Basin SWE report (Feb 2025). cdec.water.ca.gov ↩

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