This page ranks the 35 U.S. metros above 2 million residents, then follows the growth inside them down to the 1,959 incorporated places of 20,000 or more, where the country’s fastest growth is now occurring at the suburban edge.
Top & Bottom 10 Metros by Population Growth (2M+ MSAs)
Top 10 Fastest-Growing Metros (2M+) — 1-Year Growth (2024–2025) | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates (March 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Top 10 Fastest-Growing Metros (2M+) — 5-Year CAGR (2020–2025) | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates (March 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Bottom 10 Slowest-Growing Metros (2M+) — 1-Year Growth (2024–2025) | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates (March 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Bottom 10 Slowest-Growing Metros (2M+) — 5-Year CAGR (2020–2025) | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates (March 2026) | Chart: CRE42
MSA Growth Quotient — 2M+ MSAs by State
MSA Growth Quotient: Top 5 & Bottom 5 States (2M+ MSAs, 5yr CAGR 2020–2025) | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates (March 2026) | Analysis: CRE42
The Growth Quotient measures the average growth rank of a state’s 2M+ metros on a 1–35 scale (1 = slowest growing, 35 = fastest). Multi-state MSAs are split proportionally among constituent states (excluding D.C.). See Methodology section for calculation details.
Growth Cities: Where Metro Growth Is Landing
The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 subcounty estimates (released May 2026) extend the state and metro series above to the 1,959 incorporated places with populations of 20,000 or more. The pattern inside metros mirrors the pattern across them: average 2024–2025 growth in cities of 250,000 or more fell from 0.9% to 0.3%, while the fastest growth in the country occurred in metro-edge cities. Austin passed 1 million residents during the year, the 12th U.S. city to do so, and Raleigh crossed 500,000. The South accounted for 10 of the 15 fastest-growing places and 11 of the 12 largest numeric gains.[1]
Top 15 Cities by 1-Year Growth (2024–2025), Absolute | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Subcounty Population Estimates (May 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Top 15 Cities 100,000+ by 1-Year Growth (2024–2025), Percent | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Subcounty Population Estimates (May 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Top 15 Cities 50,000+ by 1-Year Growth (2024–2025), Percent | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Subcounty Population Estimates (May 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Top 15 Cities 20,000+ by Cumulative Growth (2020–2025), Percent | Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Subcounty Population Estimates (May 2026) | Chart: CRE42
Florida: Growth Has Moved Inland
Fifty-five of Florida’s 122 cities of 20,000 or more lost population in 2024–2025. The declines concentrate in metro Miami (Hialeah –2,210, Miami Gardens –1,475, Miami Beach –1,024, Doral –996) and Pinellas County (St. Petersburg –1,822, Clearwater –1,699, Largo –1,241). The growth that remains runs through the interior and the Treasure Coast: the Polk and Lake County corridor between Orlando and Tampa (Haines City +9.96%, the fastest 1-year growth of any Florida city; Winter Haven +3.80%; Apopka +5.47%), Port St. Lucie (+9,131, the fourth-largest city gain nationally), Palm Bay (+4.77%), and Jacksonville (+8,319). Aggregate growth across Florida’s 20,000+ cities fell from roughly +235,000 in 2021–2022 to +72,000 in 2024–2025. Miami city proper grew 1.3% while its suburbs contracted, so the metro-level decline is a suburban phenomenon rather than an urban-core one.
Key Observations
What to Watch For in 2026 and Beyond
Sources to Track Metro & City Growth in 2026:
| Source | Next Release | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census Bureau — Vintage 2025 MSA Estimates | MSA totals & components of change | March 2026 (released) | MSA-level data now available through July 2025; incorporated into this page |
| Census Bureau — Vintage 2025 City/Town Estimates | Incorporated places 20,000+ | May 2026 (released) | City-level totals through July 2025; incorporated into this page |
| BLS — QCEW | Q3 2025 county & metro employment/wages | March 10, 2026 | Most comprehensive measure of metro-level job growth; 450+ metros by industry |
| FHFA — House Price Index | Q4 2025 quarterly report | February 24, 2026 | 400+ metro home prices; interactive top-100 MSA ranking dashboard |
Notes
[1] U.S. Census Bureau, “Population Growth Holds Steady in Midsized Cities Amid Widespread Slowdown,” press release, May 2026. Average growth rates by city-size class, the Austin and Raleigh population milestones, and regional counts of the fastest-growing places are from this release. ↩
Sources
1. U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2025 MSA Population Estimates (March 2026). census.gov/metro-micro/tables
2. U.S. Census Bureau. Intercensal MSA Population Estimates: 2010–2020 (November 2024). census.gov/popest/intercensal-2010-2020-metro
3. U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2009 MSA Population Estimates: 2000–2009. census.gov/popest/2000-2009/metro
4. U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2025 Subcounty Population Estimates: Incorporated Places of 20,000 or More (May 2026). Files SUB-IP-EST2025-ANNRNK and SUB-IP-EST2025-CUMCHG. census.gov/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns
5. U.S. Census Bureau. “Population Growth Holds Steady in Midsized Cities Amid Widespread Slowdown.” Press release (May 2026). census.gov/newsroom/2026/vintage-2025-city-town-pop-estimates
Companion workbook. demographics-domestic-migration.xlsx — MSA population data (393 MSAs, 2000–2025), Growth Quotient analysis for 2M+ metros, state point allocation tables, and city-level tables for incorporated places of 20,000+ (2020–2025)
Methodology & Data Notes
MSA Population Data
MSA-level data spans three periods with different OMB boundary definitions. The 2010–2019 intercensal estimates and 2020–2025 Vintage 2025 estimates both use 2020 OMB MSA definitions and are directly comparable. The 2000–2009 Vintage 2009 estimates use pre-2010 OMB definitions. MSAs with material boundary changes between definitions are marked with an asterisk (*) in the spreadsheet. For most top-100 MSAs, the geographic composition is similar enough that growth rates are meaningful, but users should exercise caution when interpreting 25-year growth rates for MSAs that gained or lost counties between definitions (e.g., Charlotte, Grand Rapids, Durham).
City (Incorporated Place) Population Data
City-level figures come from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 subcounty estimates (released May 2026). Two files with different universes are used. The annual file covers incorporated places of 20,000 or more on July 1, 2025 (1,959 places) and supports the 1-year rankings. The cumulative file covers places of 20,000 or more on April 1, 2020 (1,852 places) and supports the 2020–2025 rankings; places that crossed 20,000 after April 2020, such as Celina and Fulshear, Texas, appear only in the annual file. Estimates are as of July 1 each year except the April 1, 2020 base. Census designated places are not included. City tables and charts derive from the Cities tabs of the companion workbook.
MSA Growth Quotient
The Growth Quotient is an original metric that measures the average growth rank of a state’s 2M+ metros. The 35 MSAs with 2025 populations above 2 million are ranked 1 (slowest 5-year CAGR) through 35 (fastest). For multi-state MSAs, one point is split equally among constituent states (excluding D.C.). Each state’s “adjusted rank points” equal the sum of (rank × fractional point) across all its metros. The Growth Quotient equals adjusted rank points divided by appearance points, yielding the weighted average rank — interpretable as “where does the average metro in this state sit on a 1–35 growth scale.” A state with a single fast-growing metro and a state with four fast-growing metros can score similarly, isolating growth quality from breadth.
Growth Rate Calculations
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) = (End/Start)^(1/n) – 1, where n is the number of years. Cumulative growth = (End – Start) / Start. All growth rate columns in the spreadsheets are live Excel formulas that recalculate automatically when source data is updated.