Technology & AI

Experts continue to debate AI’s speed, scope, and economic/employment impact. In ten years, the human race will be free of work and left with only concerns of how to spend our newly abundant free time and wealth, or we may be enslaved or exterminated by the robots, depending on which AI analysis you follow. With rapidly evolving general-purpose technologies, we tend to overestimate short-term effects and underestimate long-term effects, a pattern likely to repeat itself with AI.

AI’s effects on labor markets are beginning to come into focus across three broad categories: knowledge work, manual labor, and transportation. Software engineering is experiencing a rapid workflow evolution; physical AI and robotics are advancing rapidly in manufacturing, warehousing, and elder care; and robotaxis and automated trucks are moving from pilot programs toward commercial deployment in multiple U.S. metros.

In a similar manner to climate change and national debt sustainability, AI and other rapidly emerging technologies (e.g., quantum computing, gene-based therapies, space/aeronautic, renewable energy) are too complicated and fast-moving to understand and project at this moment in time. This section summarizes the current state of AI in the context of CRE investment and assists the reader to create and enhance their contextual world view.